BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul says he believes Bitcoin could potentially print over 10x gains within the next two years.
In a new tweet, blockchain investment firm executive tells his 149,000 followers that the bull market may last until the end of 2022 with Bitcoin poised to grow between 153% and 915% from its current price of $39,400.
“Time-wise, my guess is we have 9-22 months. Price wise – my guess is BTC ends the bull run between $100k-$400k.”
In a Real Vision interview with Bitcoin bull Raoul Pal, Paul explains that while he’s long-term bullish on Bitcoin, he believes altcoins will outshine the flagship crypto asset in the coming months.
“So if this bull market resembles those that came before it, and I think it likely will, the last third of the bull run, all coins, in general, are likely to outperform Bitcoin. And that’s happened every time in the past. It tends to happen in traditional markets, where you get– basically, lower-quality small caps outperform quality. And the reason is people’s risk tolerance grows.
There’s a greed element. They generate a lot – Bitcoin goes up 5x, people are now rich. They’re looking for their next 5x. And Bitcoin feels like it’s going to be hard to give it to them. So you start rotating into lower-quality assets, chasing that same high.”
As for timing the bull market top, the BlockTower Capital managing partner says he’s on the lookout for signs of extreme greed.
“Things I’ll be watching for are: rallies being driven by retail traders with high leverage, total leverage in the ecosystem at exorbitant levels…
Timing market tops is exceptionally hard. Hardly anyone is really good at it. I do think it’s very possible to identify the ‘9th inning,’ the general last phase. The challenge is that this phase could last a year (although that’s unlikely), and BTC might rally 300% during it.”
When it comes to making the most out of the current boom cycle, Paul suggests that the best strategy is to watch the paint dry.
“If I’m even close to right, it will be difficult to beat a buy and hold strategy through the end of this bull run. For active traders, it’s certainly possible to add lots of alpha with timing and rotation, but the opportunity cost of mistakes is high.”
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